Tag Archives: Propensity to buy

Propensity modelling and how it is relevant for modern marketing

In the last few years the obvious fact that for successful marketing you need to “contact the right customers with the right offer through the right channel at the right time” has become something of a mantra. While there is nothing to disagree here, it is a pity that for most part the saying stays in words and only gets realized in rare cases. The issue is that while many can repeat the mantra, only few actually know what is needed to put it in practice.  In this post, I am going to talk about the first part – how to target the right customers for your marketing actions?

There are many approaches to solving this great puzzle. One of the extreme solutions is having a team of marketing experts who rely solely on their gut feeling, projecting their opinions on customers, without any proof, not even evaluating or testing the campaigns. Because that’s what they did in their previous job. It might sound ridiculous in today’s digital era, but surprisingly it is often the case.

right_customers

The other extreme is building complex AI engines and let them make all the decisions. This is typically a proposition by some geeky start-up run by fresh PhD holders. This approach is in my opinion also wrong. First, you have absolutely no assurance that the data available truly reflect the reality, that the algorithm works flawlessly or simply that the randomness in the world is not too strong to predict. After all, even companies running algorithmic trading have human dealers overseeing their algorithms, who focus on addressing weaknesses of the algorithms and generally on preventing internal disasters.

As always, I think that the solution lies somewhere in between. An experienced marketer, whose opinion is backed by information extracted from the data available, can truly hit it. Imagine that you have to run a campaign to increase sales of a saving account (or a road bike, new robot, a holiday in Caribbean…). The long proven data extraction technique one should consider is called propensity to buy (or to purchase or to use).

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